GGG/CANELO 3 Analysis/Prediction

Gennady "GGG" Golovkin (42-1-1, 37KOs) will take on arch nemesis Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (57-2-2, 39KOs) tomorrow night in Las Vegas. This will mark the final fight of their trilogy and I think it will be the final time we see GGG fight. It's no secret that Golovkin is now 40 years old and that many feel it is just a cash out for the old warrior. I believe both of these guys genuinely dislike each other, which always makes for a good fight... usually. You have one guy who is still in his prime and another who is long removed from his and despite collecting a couple of KO wins in his last couple of fights... he's looked less than stellar doing so.

Earlier this year in April, Golovkin fought Middleweight WBA (Super) Champion Ryoto Murata (16-3, 13KOs) in Japan. It was evident from the beginning who the more talented fighter was. There's levels in this game and many fans who don't follow the sport closely don't understand that... just because you're a champion doesn't mean you're elite or the best. GGG made easy work of Murata, taking him out in the 9th round. While he looked good overall, he was huffiing and puffing hard, as early as the 5th round. It's not a good look, especially for a guy who depends on his endurance because he throws a lot of punches in fights and his entire style relies on that high volume and nonstop aggressive pace. Golovkin's mind is still sharp, but his body is not responding. It's tough to watch a guy who was so relentless look the way he does now, so diminished compared to the warrior we were so used to as early as 4-5 years ago.

Now on the other side. Canelo is coming off a loss to undefeated WBA (Super) Light Heavyweight Champion Dmitry Bivol (20-0, 11KOs). Don't let that fool you. Styles make fights. Canelo has always had issues with guys who had quick footwork, a good jab, combined with toughness and endurance. He couldn't hurt Bivol and he couldn't force Bivol to fight at his pace. He had no plan B, and made no adjustments during the fight, and in return - he got dominated. Don't let those crooked scorecards make you think that was a close fight. It just goes to show that judges in Canelo fights can't be trusted. I fully expect Canelo to take care of business tomorrow night. It's not a knock on GGG, but father time in undefeated and he's been showing signs of it knocking his door since losing a close majority decision to Canelo back in May of 2018.

I do think GGG will bring it early (first 5-6 rounds) with a steady jab, mixed up with combos, hopefully he's smart enough to protect his body and try to time Canelo when he's throwing body shots at him. The only chance I give GGG is a KO. He must get a KO against Canelo to win. Will he look better at 168lbs. We must note that this is GGG's first time at super middleweight (168lbs) in his professional career. Maybe it will help with his endurance issues a little but, but we can't ignore his age. Some of you may be thinking to yourself that age is just a number and thinking about examples. Manny Pacquiao, Bernard Hopkins, certain heavyweights (it's common for heavyweights to box into their 40s because power is always the last thing to go). GGG had 350 amateur fights before going pro (342-8), that plus 44, about to be 45 pro fights ... it's a lot. He's shown the wear and tear. Could he pull off a KO like Marquez did Pacquiao? It depends what's in those tacos he's been eating (GGG claimed to be eating 2 dinners a day, lots of tacos in a recent interview, joking obviously but who knows). He needs a miracle in my opinion.

The weigh ins took place about an hour ago. These were the results:

Anything less that a clear cut win from Canelo, and it may be time for Canelo to consider a switch to Golf in retirement. There's really no excuse here for him to look anything short of stellar. He aged out GGG as long as you can age a guy out for this 3rd fight, with 2nd fight being over 4 years ago. Canelo needs this win, a dominant win more than GGG does. I look at this as a cash out for GGG, as a farewell fight. I know he will try and make it a fight, but I see his gas tank emptying too fast and body punches from Canelo proving too much for him to be effective.


(late TKO wouldn't shock me but I think GGG survives the 12)

Nut Job Jim CF
September 16, 2022
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